Zero down means zero house

Unless you’ve been sequestered in your condo’s windowless “flex room” for the last 48 hours doing nothing but basking in the glow of your own self-appreciation, you’re well aware that the feds popped a cap in the ass of the 40-year amortization and the zero-down loan.  With this decision carried out by the government to minimize the risk of a “U.S.-style housing bubble” happening in Canada, the threshold to borrow moves higher.  And as such, the pool of potential home buyers grows smaller.  Could this be the bullet that kills B.C.’s real estate bull for good?  

While the media and the experts are far from waving the white flag, it’s impossible to interpret their analysis as positive in tone.  In fact, the Sun’s sensational front-page story about the new mortgage rules is probably the most negatively toned story related to B.C. real estate since the leaky condo crisis of the 1990s.  What’s sad is that the current story isn’t actually very negative — it only appears so in comparison to the euphoric “Vancouver real estate is hotter than sex with Angelina Jolie” coverage of the past five years.

The disconnect between public opinion and media opinion on the B.C. real estate issue is growing.   When Cameron Muir took questions on Thursday’s Bill Good Show, many callers expressed serious concerns about mortgage lending and approval practices.  I was struck by the technical nature of the questions.  They seemed to catch Muir a little off-guard, forcing him to fall back to broad key messages about the “strength” of the Canadian banking system as a safeguard against bad lending.

Like everyone, I watch and wait with great anticipation.  We have the makings of a meltdown.  The heat is on.

Sophia’s back and she’s having a party

When things get tough, I count on friends to help me through the days. One of my best buds in East Van is Sophia. I haven’t heard from her much in the last six months; she skipped town last February after having a falling out with this guy Eden. She took some time off to travel and ended up in Oregon doing volunteer work on the Obama campaign. Yeah, totally East Van, I know.

Last night, out of nowhere, Sophia gave me a call to say she’s back in Vancouver. Even better, all the trouble with the condo has been sorted out. She’s having a party on Saturday — something to do with a court-ordered “recievership” sale — and it’s open to anyone.

Anybody interested in going to the party with me? If you’re not exactly the party type, that’s OK. It’s pretty easy to make conversation at these things. When in doubt, just comment on any nearby piece of furniture (i.e. Is that a Poang chair?) or ask the person you’re speaking with to describe the details of their cell phone plan. Trust me, the young affluent types are all over this stuff.

Naslund saves us from the buyers’ market

For a hockey-mad town like Vancouver, Markus Naslund signing with the Rangers is legitimate front-page news. Still, I can’t help but wonder what would’ve been if Nazzy announced his departure a day later. Maybe then the above-the-nameplate “Buyers’ Market” story would’ve been the headline, forcing me to contemplate my retirement from blogging. (As I’ve hinted at, this blog dies when the hype is dead, and that’ll probably come when the Sun runs a headline proclaiming market doom.)

If the Buyers’ Market story is any indication, the Sun and the gang of industry experts they love to quote, are far from declaring Real Estate Judgment Day. From the article:

“When a market is in buyer’s market conditions, there is little upward pressure on home prices,” which is reflected in those May-to-June changes Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association said in an interview.

However, Muir doesn’t see any factors that would drive prices down.

Consumer confidence is lower than it was a year ago and Vancouver’s high prices have squeezed some buyers out of the market, Muir said, but the region’s overall economy remains strong with solid job creation and positive levels of population migration.

“There is no indication, at this point, of any kind of substantial decline in prices,” he added.

The president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is also given air time in the article and, no surprise, says pretty much says the same thing. So to sum up, at least as far as the “experts” are concerned, more properties plus fewer buyers equals little change in the market.

Somebody get these guys a copy of The Wealth of Nations real quick. That, and just about any article on the economy printed in the National Post or Globe and Mail within the last six months.

Nuovo kids on the block

Found this ad in my archives under the heading “Bad Ads to Write About Later.” It’s a stinker but you’ve probably come to that conclusion already. I don’t need to tell you that the models laid out on the grass look like victims of gang violence.

Perp on this one is Fifth Avenue Real Estate Marketing.

A weekend of lifestyle living

For all the talk about “lifestyle living” in the “world city” of Vancouver, the weather here is good for one, maybe two weeks a year. When mother nature bestows hot sunny days on the city — as we experienced this past weekend — Vancouverites explode with happiness, shed most of their clothes and head on down to Kits Beach for Western Canada’s ultimate body show-off.

Being the sexy urban professional that I am, I couldn’t help but join the pageant at the beach. It was a surreal experience, as if all the characters in Vancouver condo ads had come to life. Topless Babe in Shades played volleyball, the Happy Feet Couple strolled in the surf, the Coquitlam Dancing Princess did a little jig. It was beautiful. Then night fell and everybody went home.

For one weekend, Vancouver lived the lifestyle. No thought of mortgage payments or strata rules or the “100 security cameras” that help you sleep at night. Just a lovely weekend for all to enjoy.

For once, freedom.

Condo with a crotch mascot

I once met a guy who told me he was comfortable with one-night stands so long as they didn’t involve interlocking fingers at any point during or after sex. As he explained, “finger interlocking is a sign of great intimacy and love” and he couldn’t handle that. What a guy, age 36.

Anyway, I never thought much of the remark until I caught this spot for The Ridge Resort. The innovative minds at Platinum Project Marketing are responsible for this treasure of an ad where the main selling points of a Harrison view condo are a crotch, a book and — here’s the kicker — the interlocking fingers of a lone man!

I don’t know what else to say, I just think this is really funny. Mr. Blue Shorts, you’re my new favourite condo mascot.

Meet your creepy neighbour at Predator Ridge

On the spectrum of good to bad publicity, with good being the iPhone launch and bad being the smell of Granville Street on a Saturday morning, how would you rate this ad for the homes at Predator Ridge?

I almost don’t have an opinion. The awfulness of this ad is so overwhelming, it took me twenty minutes before I regained consciousness.

Here we have a family development named Predator Ridge promoted with the image of a creepy, middle-aged man who looks like he’s straight out of an episode of Law and Order: SVU. What do you think he’s thinking about as sits and smirks all alone on his faux-wood porch? It’s not the “stunning amenities” I assure you.

I need a bath. This is disturbing.

Real estate coverage takes a shift

Now you can bet your granite countertop the real estate industry wasn’t happy to see B.C. housing sales slow bursting across the cover, above the fold in Tuesday’s Vancouver Sun.

For the last half decade, the local news nursed the impression that Vancouver real estate only goes up. The exuberance in the reportage was so overwhelming, it became impossible to distinguish condo news from condo ads. But with the latest market figures so irrefutably negative — sales are down by over 30 per cent — the media find themselves with no choice but to be the bearers of bad news.

Don’t expect radical changes in what you read in the paper or watch on TV — the hype is far from dead. Instead, be on the lookout for a shift in tone. Expect editors to be more comfortable with sensationalizing the negative. For example, the Sun headline I’ve mentioned bluntly emphasizes slowing sales. In the old universe of real estate coverage, the headline could’ve been “B.C. returns to a balanced market” or some other lingo-laden horsepucky. Not anymore. This is what I mean by a shift in tone.

Going forward, I’ll be keeping a closer eye on the growing tension between media coverage and industry spin.

Why I write condohype

Responding to my previous post, reader Paul argues that this blog has a role in making a positive contribution to the craft of condo marketing. In his view, our critiques of advertising should be free of biases such as “hating the market, feeling priced out, hating Yaletown, density, etc.” While I do not agree with Paul’s advice, his challenge brings up a larger question: What’s the point of condohype?

In simple terms, condohype is a satirical commentary. Through the blog, I attempt to deploy irony, sarcasm and wit — basically all the goodies in the humourist’s toolbox — to lampoon the hell out of Vancouver condo marketing. I’ve chosen this target because it’s so perfectly emblematic of what’s wrong with Vancouver. Think about it, what better symbol than the Vancouver condo ad with its celebration of arrogance, narcissism and indifference?

These ideas manifest themselves not only in the content of the ads but also in their construction — by way of typos, errors and an aversion to good design. I attack these “mistakes” not because I take pleasure in nitpicking, but to call attention to the gargantuan bluff that defines the industry. When the market tanks and all is revealed, my commentary comes to an end.

To return to Paul’s point about making a good contribution, I believe condohype is and always has been a positive blog. Condohype takes the real and widespread angst about the crisis of affordable housing and channels it into comedic expression. This makes the writing fun to read for the broadest possible audience — which also means getting the word out to the broadest possible audience. From the single college grad feeling priced-out to the developer looking to learn the trash talk about their condo, this blog has a little something for everyone.

As for what “good” real estate marketing looks like, well, some firms do it better than others. On the basis of its colour scheme and defined target audience, Onni’s ad for V6A deserves some respect. The copy is a weak point though, especially the last three sentences. “Stake your claim in Vancouver’s most up-and-coming urban environment. The time is right to make your move. Don’t wait until it’s too late.”

I mean, really, who needs this crap? That’s five seconds of my life I’m never getting back.

This will all end soon

We’re getting so close to the end of days it isn’t even funny. You know it’s desperate times when you see something like this in the Vancouver Sun. Special thanks to moongirl for pointing it out. This ad showed up in the Tuesday edition in full colour, spread across two full pages.

How ironic that what appears to be the most cheaply designed ad in the history of Vancouver condo marketing is backed by an ad buy worth tens of thousands of dollars. Couldn’t they have spared $500 for creative?

If I can say something nice, I’ll say that this ad does a good job summing up everything that’s wrong with the selling of real estate in Metro Vancouver. It shows how twisted things have become. Broken down to the basic elements, this is what we’re sold:

1. Affordable condos = One-bedrooms starting at $149,900;
2. Great location = Downtown Langley, close to a Starbucks, groceries and a casino;
3. Fabulous luxury = Kohler faucets, garburator, soap dispenser in kitchen, electric fireplace, storage room in MOST suites, microwave.

I could keep going but it’s too depressing. To think that our economy is driven by this, that so many people have bought into this, that the “Best Place on Earth” is defined by this. It’s a tragedy. There’s no way this is going to end well. If you’re not scared now, you should be.

Friends, get ready for a walk into the basement. The market is going down.